A great time to be on my way out from Thailand?

Every night in Bangkok, angry voices echo over through the city calling for change. Democracy protests have grown into a nightly spectacle at the Sanam Luang where pundits demand not only the end of the CNS (Council for National Security that took control of the country in last September’s military coup) but also the reinstatement of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (right).

The result has been a growing unease over the current political situation and the future of the country in general. Rumors have begun to spread about the CNS instituting a curfew and on the opposite end, it has been said the democracy protests are trying to lure the military into drawing first blood to incite a war. These have proven to be no more than rumors but the country’s stability is deteriorating.

Still, the politics of the situation are taking the country into a dangerous direction it needs to avoid. The CNS would prefer that Thaksin remain in exile outside of the country, yet they have gone after him and his family with charges of corruption, malfeasance and tax evasion. They have failed to pin any of the charges to him or his family but have recently frozen over 73 billion Baht in Thaksin’s Thai bank accounts.

In order to continue to protect his family and try and recollect his frozen assets, Thaksin has little choice but to return to Thailand. But just today Surayud Chulanont (right), the current Prime Minister, issued a statement saying that Thaksin could return to stand up for himself if he wished, but he warned that the CNS could not guarantee his safety. Those still in support of Thaksin claimed tens of thousands would welcome him home at the new Suvarnabhumi airport, the very building of which is cause for many of allegations of corruption on Thaksin.

Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai political party has been dismantled on flimsy charges of bribing opponents and Thaksin and his constituents have been banned from politics for five years. This seems unlikely if he returns soon. His presence alone would give the Bangkok protests instant legitimacy and cause great alarm to the CNS. Even if Thaksin stays away from the protests, clearing his name means defeating the CNS in a politically charged courtroom. Their fates are tied together; victory for one means loss for the other and neither is about to give up soon.

What’s worse is that this is adding to any already volatile situation in the deep south where sectarian violence between Buddhists and Muslims continues to grow. Mostly isolated to three provinces, extremists have been murdering teachers, burning schools and setting off bombs. Both Thaksin and the CNS have showed an inability to quell this violence and now it’s taking a back seat to the political mess. But this doesn’t mean those involved in the social fight aren’t looking to take advantage. Insensitive to the situation, monks have recently taken up to joining protests in Bangkok demanding Buddhism be named the national religion, a move not taken lightly by the Muslim minority. So far the bombings have been predominantly in the south, but the New Year’s bombings in Bangkok have proven how susceptible the city is to attacks.

All this boils down to is the country is dangerously close to finding itself in chaos, without a great leader. The King remains in an unused third-party whose opinion is widely respected and could have great potential to ease all of Thailand’s problems. Everyone in the country would take his words as law and he is perhaps the only person who couldn't be alleged to be corrupt. But the King has grown very old and feeble. Moreover he has historically devoted himself to social policies and has kept himself almost entirely out of politics. But now the politics he refuses to deal with are threatening to tear apart his great country.

Still, it's not likely any of this brings violence to Bangkok any time soon. This is Thailand after all. Nobody was killed or injured in the coup that started all of these problems and daily life for most Thais has gone unchanged. Most have opinions about the recent politics but are unlikely to do more than talk. Even for those who feel strongly about the politics opting for violence is not likely. For one thing, unlike where I grew up, no one has any guns. On top of that, the current protests are far from troublesome.

For now, life for most Thais and all tourists goes on as usual. The situation is well worth monitoring but in Thailand when push comes to shove, people often just say, "mai bpen lai."